(a) "Market price reflects consensus view but not necessarily right view."
(b) When reviewing information ask yourself "And who else knows this?"
- Your edge must be on information or analysis or both
(c) Growth v/s Value investing
- Growth == value tomorrow
- Value == value today
- Both require an opinion regarding the future
(d) "Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong."
(e) Drivers of the market
- Fundamentals (value investing i.e. analysis of company)
- Technicals (short term irrationality i.e. looking at prevailing prices)
- Psychology (understand psychology, investing is popularity contest)
(f) "Risk is subjective, hidden and quantifiable"
- Risk is beyond VaR; ES - it is possibility of loss
- Risk means more things can happen than will happen
- Adequate investors must be risk averse for returns to have a risk premium baked in
- "Better safety gear entices climbers to take more risk"
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