(a) "Small changes to context can greatly influence outcomes."

(b) "Rules of thumb create systematic bias" - AAR

Anchoring

• "Anchoring and adjustment"
• Previous context changes direction of guess systematically

Availability

• Recency of event occurrence
• Stock price momentum
• Visual aids; more deaths from cyclone than from asthma, is it really true?

Representativeness

• Is A representative of B?
• Defies logic of probability

(c) RECAP approach to complex decisions

• Record
• Evaluate
• Compare alternative prices

(d) Nudges for choice architects

• iNcentive
• Understand mapping (of features to outcome for cost/benefit analysis)
• Focus on Default