"When the facts change, I change my mind" - John Maynard Keynes

(1) What is Noise?

• Noise is unwanted variability (which is different from wanted diversity)
• In noisy systems, errors do not cancel out, they add up

(2) Mathematics behind Noise - MSE (Mean Squared Error)

MSE == bias ^ 2 + noise ^ 2

System noise ^ 2 = Level noise ^ 2 + Pattern noise ^ 2

Pattern noise ^ 2 = Stable pattern noise ^ 2 + Occasion noise ^ 2

Level noise refers to variability in the average judgment ("Some judges are harsher")

Pattern noise refers to variability in ranking of cases

(3) Informational cascade

• Starting opinion ends up as the decision
• A counter to this issue of premature judgement formation is progressive disclosure of information to decision makers

(4) Objective ignorance

• Whenever there is a prediction , there is ignorance, and more of it than expected

(5) "The invisibility of noise is a direct consequence of casual thinking"

• Desire to construct narratives - casual thinking - everything makes sense
• Causally, noise is nowhere. Statistically, noise is everywhere

(6) Active Open Mindedness

• Actively search for information that disproves your conclusions or hypothesis