(1) "People often assume that complex ideas that cannot be simplified into a media friendly statement is the symptom of a confused mind."

(2) "Some knowledge is not always improved with further information."

(3) "A small knowledge of probability can lead to worse outcomes than no knowledge of probability."

(4) Option blindness

• People mistake the expected payoff of an event from the payoff in the most favorable scenario

(5) People mistake the absence of finding with the finding of absence

• There is often great information in "nothing has happened" (eg Sherlock and the case that the dog did not bark)

(6) Don't learn from shallow history

• History teaches us that events which have not happened before may happen

#Psychology